Disagreement, Credences, and Outright Belief
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Outright Belief
What is the relation between (a) “full” or “outright” belief and (b) the various levels of confidence that agents can have in the propositions that concern them? This paper argues for a new answer to this question. Decision theory implies that in making decisions, rational agents must treat certain propositions as though they were completely certain; but on most forms of decision theory, these ...
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We introduce a family of rules for adjusting one’s credences in response to learning the credences of others. These rules have a number of desirable features. 1. They yield the posterior credences that would result from updating by standard Bayesian conditionalization on one’s peers’ reported credences if one’s likelihood function takes a particular simple form. 2. In the simplest form, they ar...
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Consider the phenomenon of belief polarization. Suppose that two individuals—let’s call them ‘You’ and ‘I’--disagree about some non-straightforward matter of fact: say, about whether capital punishment tends to have a deterrent effect on the commission of murder. Although neither of us is certain of his or her view, I believe that capital punishment is a deterrent while You believe that it is n...
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In light of the chance that the plate will be saved by a sudden gust of hot air, what should we say about the truth conditions of the ordinary conditional (1b)? Some theories predict that (1b) is true. For instance, Lewis 1973b says that the plate being saved by friendly air currents is a remarkable low-probability event, and that worlds where such events happen are farther away than worlds whe...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Ratio
سال: 2017
ISSN: 0034-0006
DOI: 10.1111/rati.12163